Norbert Brügge, a German analyst, reported that photos of the engine firing revealed strong similarities between it and the RD-250, a Yuzhmash model.
◎Spotting the Similarities◎
How a German scientist found evidence that the engine on a North Korean missile was most likely made in a Ukrainian factory.
1 North Korea releases a propaganda video of a missile inspection featuring Kim Jong-un. The video gives a glimpse of the weapon’s engines.
2 Norbert Brügge maps the missile’s base to highlight the shapes and sizes of the main engine and its four steering engines.
3 The diagram is then used as an overlay atop the missile photo to determine main component sizes.
4 The inferred size of the main engine matches that of a Ukrainian rocket engine suspected of being sold illegally to North Korea.
Source: Norbert Brügge By The New York Times
Alarms rang louder after a second ground firing of the North’s new engine, in March, and its powering of the flight in May of a new intermediate-range missile, the Hwasong-12. It broke the North’s record for missile distance. Its high trajectory, if leveled out, translated into about 2,800 miles, or far enough to fly beyond the American military base at Guam.
On June 1, Mr. Elleman struck an apprehensive note. He argued that the potent engine clearly hailed from “a different manufacturer than all the other engines that we’ve seen.”
Mr. Elleman said the North’s diversification into a new line of missile engines was important because it undermined the West’s assumptions about the nation’s missile prowess: “We could be in for surprises.”
That is exactly what happened. The first of the North’s two tests in July of a new missile, the Hwasong-14, went a distance sufficient to threaten Alaska, surprising the intelligence community. The second went far enough to reach the West Coast, and perhaps Denver or Chicago.
Last week, the Bulletin of the Atomic Scientists featured a detailed analysis of the new engine, also concluding that it was derived from the RD-250. The finding, the analysts said, “raises new and potentially ominous questions.”
The emerging clues suggest not only new threats from North Korea, analysts say, but new dangers of global missile proliferation because the Ukrainian factory remains financially beleaguered. It now makes trolley buses and tractors, while seeking new rocket contracts to help regain some of its past glory.
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